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Included in China’s National Essential Drugs List, Can Epclusa Get a Second Wind in China? (1)

November 20, 2018 By 1℃

The 2018 Edition National Essential Drugs List of China was officially published on October 25, 2018, which attracts extensive attention of the industry. The new edition of China’s National Essential Drugs List is officially implemented today ,which adds many blockbuster targeted oncology drugs, diabetes drugs, and clinically imperative pediatric drugs, etc. and optimizes the structure of pharmaceutical products therein.

Wherein, the DAA (direct-acting antiviral) Epclusa (sofosbuvir/velpatasvir) of Gilead marketed in China from March 30, 2018 attracts more attention, and is included in China’s National Essential Drugs List instead of China’s medical insurance. The future market sales of this drug are worthy of attention. Here, I’d like to have a review and outlook of the sales data of global hepatitis C drug market from 2011 to 2018, and describe the marketing of the hepatitis C DAAs in China.

I. Declining from USD 24 billion to USD 8 billion: Global hepatitis C drug market contracting sharply

The drug market will contract as DAAs have opened the era of hepatitis C cure!

3 quarters of 2018 are gone, and companies have successively released their 2018 Q3 financial reports. The global hepatitis C drug market will keep contracting in 2018 as Gilead’s hepatitis C drugs continue to decline. I predict that the size of global hepatitis C drug market will contract from USD 24 billion to USD 8 billion in 2018. Refer to the following figure for the market sales data of main products in global hepatitis C drug market from 2011 to 2018:

the market sales data of main products in global hepatitis C drug market from 2011 to 2018

1. Some interferon products include sales revenue from non-hepatitis C indications

2. 2018 sales are predicted by me

3. Data are sourced from company financial reports

II. Hepatitis C cure: behind the contraction of global hepatitis C drug market is the revolutionary medical progress

In the hepatitis C drug field, the marketing of the DAAs has opened the era of hepatitis C cure, wherein, those famous include Sovaldi, Epclusa, Harvoni, and Vosevi of Gilead; Viekira Pak and Mavyret of AbbVie. Compared to the traditional combination of interferon and ribavirin, the combination of DAA and PR and all-oral DAA regimens have increased SVR from 60% to 90%-100%, which marks revolutionary progress!

In the hepatitis C drug field, Gilead used to be earthshaking, and hepatitis C drug business used to be the assets Gilead relied on most, however, after peaking in 2015, the sales have been declining rapidly for 3 consecutive years, with 2018 sales estimated to be USD 3.763 billion, which will be equivalent to those of AbbVie!

Behind the contraction of global hepatitis C drug market is the revolutionary medical progress and launch of blockbuster innovative products. The era of hepatitis C cure represents the self-revolution of the hepatitis C drug market, however, hepatitis C cure is an epoch-making advancement.

See the following figure for the market performance of hepatitis C drug business of main companies in global hepatitis C drug market from 2011 to 2018:

the market performance of hepatitis C drug business of main companies in global hepatitis C drug market from 2011 to 2018

III. Post-DAA era: Hepatitis C drug business of AbbVie to buck the trend and rise

AbbVie’s Mavyret was marketed in 2017. Hepatitis C drug business of AbbVie bucks the trend and rises in the post-DAA era because Mavyret has a shorter treatment cycle (the only DAA with treatment course of 8 weeks) and largely reduces treatment expenses. The market sales of AbbVie have gradually become equivalent to those of Gilead in the international and U.S. hepatitis C drug markets; and sales of AbbVie are estimated to exceed those of Gilead in 2018!

In the post-DAA era, the 2018 sales of AbbVie are estimated to grow by 200% year on year, with the prescriptions rapidly growing in the U.S. Among the performance in the four quarters of separately 2017 and 2018:

2018-Q1 VS 2017-Q1: ↑249%

2018-Q2 VS 2017-Q2: ↑332%

2018-Q3 VS 2017-Q3: ↑246%

2018-Q4 VS 2017-Q4: ↑90.6%

performance in the four quarters of separately 2017 and 2018

Read More:

Included in China’s National Essential Drugs List, Can Epclusa Get a Second Wind in China? (2)

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